Today's Line - Staying Aggressive

Magic Number to 55% - 17
Magic Number to 60% - 307

Record to date:

Yesterday	0	5	0	0%	-$5.69
Last Week	12	18	0	40.0%	-$9.36
Last Month	78	75	1	51.0%	-$11.19
Last 90 Days	100	98	1	50.5%	-$21.57
Last Year	437	406	15	51.8%	-$36.05
Lifetime	1261	1047	51	54.6%	-$66.36

Find me on Twitter - Sports Bettor@letsget60

Well folks what can I say 0-5 is 0-5. I have no one to blame bu myself on the  Houston one and the parlay. Houston was a "free pick" by an "expert. I won't make that mistake again. I should have taken the points in the parlay and not the money line on Minnesota. Had I done that I would have won.

I talked about variance yesterday and boy did we see it in these next 3 picks.

Let's review:

Aaron Rodgers went down in the first series. Chicago won. I think everyone would agree that if Rodgers were healthy the packers win going away.

Minnesota had started hot in the first quarter of their first three games, the Cavs started slow in the first quarter. I was ridding the hot hand and playing the percentages. I'd make this bet again.

The Warriors scored more than 30 points in the first 3 quarters and then scored 12 in the fourth. Philly was averaging 100 points per game...they scored 90. The over was short by 10 points. I'd make this bet again.

Moving on...

The bankroll has taken quite a hit so I'm implementing the 5% rule. For ML, teasers, and parlays I will use my regular bankroll but for spreads I will use my bonus bankroll. I'm also going to stay aggressive, things will turn around so there is no reason to abandoned the 1-3-5 rule. If I see 5 good bets I'm going to play them.

Here we go...

NBA:

Heat (-199) @ Raptors: The Heat are coming off a couple of days rest and looking to get their edge back. I don't see Toronto standing in their way.

Spurs (-169) @ Nuggets: The Nuggets are adjusting to Shaw's half-court offense without being at full strength while the Spurs are at full strength doing what they do best.

Pacers@Pistons under (187): This is the lowest under on the board and has already moved two points from 185. I'm waiting a few more hours to play it.

NHL:

Buffalo @ San Jose (-402) Highest ML I've seen this season, but with good reason. Sharks might be the best team in the NHL right now...Buffalo is the worst.

CFB:

Ohio (+4) @ Buffalo: These two teams and Bowling Green are vying for first place in the eastern division of the MAC. Bowling Green plays Miami of Ohio tonight and should win easily which would put them at 4-1. Buffalo has the lead right now at 4-0 but Ohio is 3-1. The pressure is on Buffalo to stay in first place whereas Ohio needs the win for a three-way tie. Who thought the MAC would have so much drama! I see this game going in one of two ways. One where Ohio completely overwhelms Buffalo with their passing attack ranked second in the MAC and their 2nd ranked defense. Or Buffalo is able to control the time of possession and get the game in the fourth quarter and keep it close. If that is the case the underdog is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) the last 6 meetings. Also, Buffalo is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record, 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games in November and 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week. Ohio 8-3 ATS against a team with a winning record and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.

Keep An Eye On:The Lowest Under: (3-1)

Came through last night. Going with it tonight.

Fading Houston: (2-1-1)

Houston is getting +1.5 and should cover vs. Portland.