Magic Number to 55% - 18
Magic Number to 60% - 320
Cash Balance Since Starting This Blog: $6.60
Cash Balance Today - $8.64
Bonus Cash - $3.38
| Yesterday | 4 | 7 | 0 | 36.4% | |
| Last Week | 30 | 29 | 3 | 50.9% | |
| Last Month | 106 | 92 | 4 | 53.5% | |
| Last 90 Days | 150 | 138 | 4 | 52.1% | |
| Last Year | 480 | 440 | 16 | 52.2% | |
| Lifetime | 1311 | 1087 | 54 | 54.7% |
The last couple of nights were good lessons for me in becoming a better handicapper. I really need to think things through. I'm not giving a lot of thought into my picks at all and I'm being swayed by historical stats that really don't mean shit. For me a lot of my success at handicapping is about feel. If I feel good about a pick I should bet it, if not then I need to leave it alone. I'm not saying don't look at stats, what I'm saying is that don't let it sway you from your gut feeling.
With that here are the picks...
CFB:
4 team teaser:
Maryland @ VT (-3): VT crawled back into the Coastal Division race with their win over Miami. They have something to play for and will take care of business at home.
Georgia @ Auburn OVER (51): Both teams need a win to stay relevant in the SEC. Both teams struggle on defense. Both teams will score 30+.
Utah @ Oregon (-15): Oregon plays angry and will take out their frustrations on Utah.
Texas Tech @ Baylor (-14.5): Baylor needs a win and style points to stay in the BCS race. TT has defensive issues which doesn't bode well for a team like Baylor that starts so quickly.
2 team teaser
WSU @ Arizona (-4.5): WSU is trash allowing 183 yards per game at a 4.5 yards per rush. Guess what Arizona likes to do...run the ball. They average 271 yards per game at a 5.6 yards per attempt. That's worth more than 5 points!
NC State @ Boston College (pick'em): I've been high all year on BC and here is where they show again that they are a better team then their 5-4 record shows with a close loss to FSU and a nice win against VT. Look for BC to lock up a bowl game with a win at home.
2 team parlay
MSU and ASU: (-173): MSU needs to keep pace in the Legends division. Their defense will carry them to victory. ASU is playing very well these days on both sides of the ball and really cranks it up at home as Oregon St is coming off two loses and won't have an answer for ASU potent offense.
ATS Picks
TCU @ Kansas St (-11): K State is playing very well on both sides of the ball. TCU's defense isn't the same as it has been in the past years and their offense is atrocious only scoring 23 points a game. Look for K St to continue to do it through the air.
UCF (-16.5) @ Temple: UCF needs to keep the gas peddle on as they get closer to a BCS bid. A 1-8 Temple won't put up much of a fight, they are simply outclassed in this one.
Baylor 1Q (-7): Baylor gets off to a quick start and scores at least 10 in the first quarter.
Kentucky @ Vandy (-12.5): Potential let down here for Vandy as they might sleepwalk through the first quarter or so. But they are at home and playing very well as Kentucky is going no where this year.
CBB:
Creighton (-3.5) @ St Joesph: The Blue Jays are a Big East tittle contender with the dynamic duo of McDermott and Gibbs leading the way. The Hawks only averaged 64 points on offense last year won't be able to keep up.
Hawaii @ Missouri (-10.5): This game will come down to guard play since either team can will be able to establish themselves in the paint. Hawaii lost two of their big men that started last year and Missouri trades size for quickness this year. Missouri has better guards and is more athletic than the Warriors.
Wisconsin (-5) @ Green Bay: Fresh off their win against the Gators the Badgers travel to Green Bay to play a team that quite frankly isn't ready to take on big time programs. This is a classic match up with a top 25 team tourney bound versus a team that is not.
NBA:
Heat (-325) @ Bobcats: LBJ is playing out of his mind right now and the Heat are still trying to find themselves defensively. They gave up over a 100 points last night but I don't see that happening against a Bobcat team that may or may not have Jefferson on the court. The Heat usually take care of business on the road, look for them to get the W today.
Pacers (+4) @ Bulls: The Pacers bring their undefeated record to the United Center today to face a Bulls team that may or may not have Rose at their disposal not to mention already losing to the Pacers earlier in the season. The Pacers are confident they can beat anyone these days so this will be a close game if not another win for the Pacers.
Pacers @ Bulls UNDER (180.5): Lowest under on the board.
NHL:
Maple Leafs (-215) @ Sabres: Buffalo beat them last night...I don't see them doing it again regardless if they are at home. Toronto is just the better team. Fool me once...
Hurricanes @ Blues (-252): This game falls into the system of a superior team playing at home against an inferior team. St Louis has gone 7-1-2 in their last 10 ad has a +21 differential. Where as Carolina has a -14 differential going 4-5-1 in their last 10.
Panthers @ Avalanche (-241): Another game that fits the system. Colorado is playing exceptionally well with a +21 differential and 7-3 in their last 10 against one of the worst teams in the NHL that played last night in and lost. Florida has a -27 differential and has gone 1-6-3 in their last 10.
Keep An Eye On:
The Lowest Under: ATS: (7-3-1)
Going with it again tonight.
Fading Houston: ATS: (3-5-1)
Giving 8 to Denver at home. I say they don't cover.
The Lowest Under: ATS: (7-3-1)
Going with it again tonight.
Fading Houston: ATS: (3-5-1)
Giving 8 to Denver at home. I say they don't cover.
Shading New Orleans: ATS (3-6)
Giving 8.5 at home to Philly. Have to wait an see.
Shading Detroit: ATS (4-4)
Covered last night.
Good Luck Everyone!
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